Frankel: extended unbeaten record to five in the Greenham Stakes

  PICTURE: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)  

Big tests lie ahead for fabulous Frankel

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings

FRANKEL took his unbeaten record to five in the Greenham Stakes on Saturday, but that string of dazzling victories will count for little unless he can maintain the dominance into next month and beyond.

History doesn't remember great two-year-olds like it does Classic winners. Champion juveniles are a one-a-year phenomenon. Most have identical profiles (three or four wins from maiden to Dewhurst) and the fact Frankel has also now bagged a Greenham adds little to the equation.

A future superstar he may be, but on what he has done so far he could be forgotten as quickly as any other champion juvenile who loses the Guineas, left in the shadows of the next big thing.

He might have looked devastatingly impressive in each of his wins to date, but so was Nijinsky and no one remembers him for his juvenile campaign, while Celtic Swing is remember as much for his flop at three as for his outstanding form at two.

Real legends are made in the Classic arena and the 2,000 Guineas offers budding starlets their first substantial test - one which often finds out the previous year's champion juvenile.

The Guineas is often so strong that even finishing in the frame is no bad start for a potential champion, as Giant's Causeway, Raven's Pass and New Approach have all proved, but for Henry Cecil and his legion of followers it's a win they are looking for with Frankel.

As the best two-year-old this century by RPRs, Frankel theoretically holds a better chance of winning the Guineas than the many other smart juveniles who have failed in recent times.

Not training on has been an issue for previous contenders, but the way he won the Greenham, stretching away by four lengths despite running free early, gave at least some indication that he has returned as good ashe was last term and Cecil suggested he would improve a fair amount for the outing.

Unlike with recent 2,000 Guineas failures, Frankel doesn't have any glaring hole in his armoury, but he does have a potent weapon, which gives him an edge in all areas of the race.

It is his superb long stride which allows him to cover the ground with ease in the early stages, where he moves effortlessly, conserving energy. Later in the race that same stride allows him both tactical mid-race acceleration and a turn of toe, which never disappoints.

A suggestion could be made that history is against him in the Guineas, since 16 of the last 17 favourites have been overturned, including two at odds-on and an even-money poke last year, but a mathematician would smack your legs for suggesting that has any bearing on the chances of this individual horse in this individual race.

Long term, perhaps the race is one in which to take a cautious view of flimsy favourites, but this favourite is far from flimsy. There is little more he could have done to prove he is something special in the making.

He probably will win the Guineas - and that isnot based solely on his ability, consistency, his smart trial win and top-class course form, but the fact that with Henry Cecil in charge of his preparation you can guarantee no stone will go unturned. Odds-on ante-post, however, is never appealing.

The Guineas often proves a turning point for leading juveniles and whether Frankel becomes another St Nicholas Abbey or another Wollow may well be determined on that day at HQ in two week's time. Let's hope it is the beginning rather than the end of his legacy.

He posted a provisional RPR of 119+ in the Greenham, but still holds a healthy advantage over his potential rivals judged on last season's 127.

In America, the Classic division remains wide-open after the latest round of trials.

On this year's form Dialed In leads the way with an RPR of 119, while Uncle Mo still holdsthe biggest figure of 124 from last season, although his best this term is 116.

Archarcharch posted the biggest RPR of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls this weekend with a 118 for his Arkansas Derby success. Perhaps more eyecatching, however, was the runner-up Nehro (116+), who finished the 1m1f contest with gusto and was in front a stride after the line.

He also ran a smart trial when second in the Louisiana Derby last month, losing momentum with some trouble turning in before staying on well to finish a close second.

He still has a fairway to go to match the rating of an average Kentucky Derby winner, but in a race this open it may be worth siding with the horse on a rapid upward curve, especially with the step up in trip likely to suit.

TOP OF THE CLASS: Frankel 119+ Henry Cecil (GB) (Greenham Stakes, 7f, Newbury, April 16)

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