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TOM PENNINGTON |
Weblog: Using pedigrees to become a prosperous punter
Fingal Bay: has had to make his own running in his wins this season
PICTURE: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)Sire's record boosts Fingal's Neptune claims
Each week leading up to the Cheltenham Festival, bloodstock reporter Tom Pennington will be using pedigree analysis to select the likely winner of some of the meeting's big races. This week: Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle (2m5f)
THIS year’s Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle is packed full of quality and picking a winner won’t be easy, but when is it ever easy to select a winner at the festival?
Philip Hobbs believes that Fingal Bay may be one of the ‘best’ he has ever trained, so he is an appropriate starting point. Fingal Bay is a son of King’s Theatre, a sire with a healthy festival record - siring five winners form 38 runners.
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However, three of King’s Theatre’s festival winners have won at the minimum distance of 2m, two of them being bred to appreciate a trip: Cue Card (dam contested a Grand National) and Menorah (dam winner over 2m6f). For the majority of this season, Fingal Bay has had to do his own donkey work and on several occasions looked a sitting duck for a speedier rival, but he’s still unbeaten.
If, and it’s a big if, there is a strong end-to-end gallop he will surely go close. If the pace is sedate and Richard Johnson doesn’t make enough use of his staying ability I could see him being beaten, in a scenario that mirrors the events of 2006 when Denman was outgunned by the Paul Carberry-ridden Nicanor.
Willie Mullins has trained two winners of this race in the last four years and could be double-handed in this year’s renewal with the unbeaten hurdler Boston Bob and Gigginstown Stud-owned Make Your Mark.
Boston Bob was mightily impressive when he beat the highly-touted Mount Benbulben in a 2m4f Grade 1 novice hurdle at Navan in December, before staying on gamely to beat a top-class field – including Make Your Mark - in the Grade 2 Synergy Security Solutions Novices Hurdle at Leopardstown.
The form stacks up but he appears to be a mudlark and his pedigree reinforces the theory. His two winning siblings – Belle Away and Vicars Way – both excelled in testing conditions. There’s no question this horse has bags of ability, but he may be run off his feet if the ground has ‘good’ in its description.
Boston Bob’s stable companion Make Your Mark will surely appreciate the better ground that can be expected at Cheltenham. The son of Beneficial travelled supremely well for a long way when finishing third behind Boston Bob at Leopardstown, before the saturated ground appeared to take its toll. However, Beneficial – this season’s leading jumps sire by earnings – has an indifferent record with his festival runners.
In the last nine years he has only had one winner, the Willie Mullins-trained Cooldine in the RSA Chase. This stat could also deter punters from backing Noel Meade’s Grade 2-winning hurdler Monksland.
John Ferguson, desperate for a festival winner, is represented by the Grade 2 Neptune Investment Management Leamington Novices’ Hurdle winner Cotton Mill. Unbeaten over hurdles, the son of Tiger Hill has been impressive this season and seems at ease on any surface.
Although bred to excel on the Flat - he is a half-brother to the IrishOaks heroine Pure Grain - Cotton Mill has taken to jumping like a duck to water and represents sound each-way value.
Finally, it would be hard not to include a novice trained by Nicky Henderson, such is the quality of ammunition at his disposal in the division.
It is hard to select one horse from the Seven Barrows academy but the lightly raced Mono Man has the potential and ability needed to win this event.
The winner of two bumpers last season,Mono Man appeared to be outpaced when a staying-on third behind the useful pair It’s A Gimme and Colour Squadron at Newbury on his only start this term. A step up in trip at Cheltenham should benefit – his sire Old Vic has supplied four festival winners in the last nine years, all coming over a minimum distance of 2m5f.
Selection: Fingal Bay
Alternative: Mono Man (each-way)
