Simonsig a fair bet to be in the Supreme mix

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Each week leading up to the Cheltenham Festival, bloodstock reporter Tom Pennington will be using pedigree analysis to select the likely winner of some of the meeting's big races. This week: Stan James Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

THIS year’s renewal has a very open look about it; the race has previously been dominated by hot favourites, including Cue Card and Dunguib, who were duly turned over.

The Jessica Harrington-trained Steps To Freedom is high on many lists, but his form this season is questionable. An impressive bumper career saw him defeat Alan King’s pride and joy Montbazon and he is unbeaten over hurdles.

However, the strength of the form is questionable. He could only beat Prospect Wells a neck on his favoured good ground at Cheltenham earlier in the season, Prospect Wells has since disappointed in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle and the third-placed Ericht has been a huge disappointment.

Steps To Freedom is by the Coventry Stakes winner Statue Of Liberty, a sire that has never had a runner at the Cheltenham Festival but has a ten per cent winners-to-runner strike-rate with his jumpers. The horse clearly has ability but he should be taken on.

Montjeu’s Cheltenham hoodoo was broken last year thanks to the impressive Champion Hurdle winner Hurricane Fly and the Jewson Novices’ Chase scorer Noble Prince. He has another live candidate for this year’s festival in the form of the Willie Mullins-trained Midnight Game.

 A €450,000 yearling purchase, Midnight Game was a dual winner on the Flat at up to 1m2f, before being bought by Mags O’Toole at Arqana for €185,000. Now carrying the colours of Gigginstown House Stud the five-year-old has made marked improvement over hurdles and last time disposed of Noel Meade’s useful hurdler Dylan Ross with the minimum of fuss.

Midnight Game was bred to prosper on the Flat but his dam Midnight Angel is proving a useful National Hunt broodmare. She is not only responsible for the Evan Williams-trained
Grade 3-winning chaser West With The Wind but has also produced John Ferguson’s smart bumper recruit New Year’s Eve.

Midnight Game’s action suggests that better ground would suit, as would a stronger gallop. Not the easiest of rides – high head carriage and swishes tail – Midnight Game certainly has the ability to be in the shake up.

The Nicky Henderson-trained Simonsig looks the ideal candidate for this race – he will thrive on a strong gallop, but also has the stamina required for this race. Future Gold Cup winners War Of Attrition and Best Mate were runners up in the race before excelling over fences and a trip.

Simonsig has by far and away the best form on offer, having finished second to the Grade 1-winning novice Fingal Bay. Simonsig travelled like the winner for the majority of the race but a combination of deep ground and the 2m4f trip was his undoing and he weakened after the final flight. However, he was back on the winning trail when sluicing up in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso.

He doesn’t have the most desirable pedigree, by the Prix Ganay winner Fair Mix and out of the Terimon mare Dusty Too. However, Dusty Too is a dual bumper and hurdle winner and won over 2m5f, so there are no stamina concerns. Fair Mix has only had one runner at the festival but Simonsig could go a long way to providing him with his first festival winner.

Cinders And Ashes has done nothing but improve this season and the son of Beat Hollow looks to enhance his sire's growing reputation by securing his first festival winner. Ballylinch Stud’s latest recruit has had a stellar season thanks in part to the performances of the Grade 1-winning hurdler Hollow Tree, Ted Spread and Cinders And Ashes.

Closely related to St Leger winner Brian Boru, Cinders And Ashes has a strong Flat pedigree full of high-class individuals. The trip should pose no problems to the horse - if anything he may appreciate a step up in trip before being seen at his best.

Last but not least is the current favouritefor the race Galileo’s Choice. The son of Galileo was purchased as a foal for 140,000gns at Tattersalls and was successful three times on the Flat over 1m2f, including at Group 3 level last year. He has clearly improved for a change of codes, his only defeat over hurdles coming in the Grade 1 Royal Bond when beaten by Sous Les Cieus. Midnight Game was back in fourth that day and has been on a big upward curve since but Sous Les Cieux has been slightly disappointing.

Galileo’s Choice is not over big but is incredibly slick and nimble over his hurdles, an attribute that is a necessity in this race. By the all conquering flat sire Galileo, who has had one festival winner courtesy of the Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo, Galileo’s Choice is a half-brother to the Grade 3-winning hurdler Tharawaat and a combination of pinpoint-precise hurdling accuracy and Flat speed make him a leading player here.

Selection: Simonsig

Alternative: Midnight Game (each-way)